Odds NBA Championship 2018: Who Had the Best Chance to Win the Finals?

When I first started analyzing NBA championship odds back in 2018, I remember thinking this was going to be the most unpredictable season in recent memory. The Golden State Warriors were still the team to beat, but something felt different that year - maybe it was the rising threat of teams like Houston or the lingering possibility of LeBron pulling off another miracle. Let me walk you through how I approached evaluating championship probabilities that season, because honestly, it's not just about looking at win-loss records or star power - there's an art to reading between the lines of what the oddsmakers are telling us.

My process always begins with understanding team chemistry and how pieces fit together. Take the Golden State Warriors - they were sitting at around -160 favorites in most sportsbooks when the season started, which basically meant you'd have to bet $160 just to win $100. Those are some steep odds, but considering they had four All-Stars in their prime including two former MVPs, it made mathematical sense. Still, I had my doubts - Draymond Green was dealing with shoulder issues early in the season, and their bench depth wasn't what it used to be after losing some key role players. I remember telling my basketball group chat that Houston at +450 presented incredible value - they'd added Chris Paul who was having his most efficient season ever, and their switch-everything defense was specifically built to counter Golden State's motion offense.

What many casual fans don't realize is that regular season success doesn't always translate to playoff performance. The Toronto Raptors finished with 59 wins that season but were only getting +1800 odds because of their perennial playoff disappointments. This is where advanced stats come in handy - I spent hours analyzing net ratings, clutch performance metrics, and even travel schedules. The Boston Celtics were fascinating - they started the season at +800 but climbed to +600 after their surprising 16-game winning streak, even without Gordon Hayward. Their defense was historically good, allowing just 97.5 points per 100 possessions during that stretch, but I remained skeptical about their offensive firepower come playoff time.

Injury situations can completely shift championship calculus, and this is where having insider knowledge pays off. I followed practice reports like a hawk and noticed that Houston's Chris Paul was dealing with recurring hamstring tightness as early as January - not many people were talking about this, but it made me hesitant to place a significant wager on them despite their impressive record. Meanwhile, Golden State's Stephen Curry had that MCL sprain that kept him out for the first round, dropping their odds temporarily to +120 - honestly, that might have been the best value bet all season if you believed he'd return healthy.

The Western Conference was an absolute bloodbath that year. Besides the obvious top two, teams like Oklahoma City with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony were sitting at +2500, while Utah at +4000 had that sneaky-good defense that could trouble anyone in a seven-game series. I actually put small wagers on both as hedge bets because playoff basketball often comes down to matchups rather than pure talent. The East felt much more straightforward - Cleveland opened at +550 despite LeBron James having what might have been his most impressive carry job ever, carrying a roster that included JR Smith shooting 38% from the field and Kevin Love missing significant time with a hand fracture.

When Cone eventually picked the 6-foot-1 Thompson, the former NCAA MVP and a known triple-double machine from University of Perpetual Help, it reminded me how championship teams often have that one unexpected contributor who emerges at the perfect time. Torres, the former national youth player who won a UAAP men's championship with La Salle, going three picks later at No. 8 to the Star Hotshots (Magnolia) - these are the kinds of players who can shift championship odds when they develop faster than anticipated. Every championship team has its Thompson or Torres - think of Golden State's Jordan Bell or Houston's Gerald Green that season - role players who could provide unexpected contributions at critical moments.

My personal methodology involves creating what I call a "pressure index" - how teams perform in high-leverage situations, their experience in close games, and coaching adjustments. Gregg Popovich's Spurs were always undervalued in the odds - they were sitting at +2000 despite Kawhi Leonard's mysterious quad injury, but I'd watched Popovich pull rabbits out of hats for too many years to completely count them out. Meanwhile, teams like Philadelphia at +1600 felt overvalued - yes, they had incredible young talent in Embiid and Simmons, but their half-court offense stagnated too often against set defenses.

As the playoffs approached, I noticed the smart money was coming in on Golden State despite the poor value - the public tends to overreact to single games, but sharps were quietly backing the Warriors once Curry returned looking healthy. The Houston money line moved from +450 to +380 after they clinched the top seed, but I personally thought this created better value on Golden State at that point. My final betting slip had Golden State to win at -140 (I got them early after Curry's return), a smaller bet on Houston at +400, and what I call my "lottery ticket" on Cleveland at +1200 - because betting against LeBron in the Eastern Conference always felt foolish, no matter how bad his supporting cast looked.

Looking back at the odds NBA championship 2018 landscape, the Warriors were the correct pick despite the terrible betting value - sometimes the obvious choice is the right one. But the real lesson from that season was about timing your bets - the best value on Golden State came during Curry's injury, while Houston's peak value was actually in preseason when nobody believed they could challenge the dynasty. Every season has these windows where the odds don't quite reflect reality, and finding those discrepancies is what separates casual fans from serious analysts. The championship eventually went to the Warriors in a sweep, but the journey there - and the betting opportunities along the way - were what made that season particularly fascinating for odds watchers like myself.